Stabilized Apartments Hold Advantage During 2H in California's Central Valley

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With a lack of new supply coming online in California's Central Valley apartment market, stabilized units are set to benefit the most, according to a new report from Northmarq.

The market overall is entering the second half from a position of strength. That comes as Kern County and Stanislaus County face construction pipelines topping 5% of inventory, while Fresno — nearly 40% of regional stock — sees almost no new competition.

"Most deliveries land in the second half, compressing lease-up pressure into a short window," Robin Kane, Northmarq managing director, investment sales, told GlobeSt.com.

"Stabilized properties should hold up better than new communities competing for renters. Transaction counts have stayed steady even as dollar volume fell, as larger trades give way to smaller deals.

Kane said that Fresno should remain the region's most active apartment market, while San Joaquin's pricing faces new near-term competition.

Central Valley Sales Shift To Smaller Units

Central Valley apartment sales activity has remained relatively steady, but the composition of transactions has shifted significantly.

Only one sale during the first half of the year exceeded 100 units and none involved properties built after 1984.

The trend intensified in the second quarter, when four of five transactions were smaller than 40 units.

In contrast, the fourth quarter of 2025 featured five sales of at least 140 units across Fresno, San Joaquin and Kern counties, with the median transaction size roughly double the 2026 level.

As a result, transaction counts have held relatively stable while dollar volume has declined sharply, reflecting a market where liquidity is concentrated in smaller, older Class B and Class C assets rather than the larger deals that drove volume in late 2025.

The Central Valley multifamily year-to-date median sale price is $105,000 per unit, with the 96-unit Sunset Sands in Fresno being the largest trade at nearly $11 million, Northmarq reported.

Fresno, which accounts for roughly 40% of the regional apartment stock, has almost no new development underway.